More and more evidence has been emerging regarding how polls really work and the ways in which pollsters get it badly wrong. We’ve all known that polls have been becoming less reliable but we always looked at it after the ‘preference cascade’ emerged later.
Specifically, when the errors of a poll were discovered, it was always after the cascade began and those within the groupthink admitted they felt differently all along.
This idea will have huge impacts on polling going forward. This was explained to me recently in some fairly straightforward language. An article regarding this, which I cannot find now, pointed out that when you delegitimize a person’s belief, position or VOTE, you don’t change their mind but simply make them not want to talk about it.
This has been shown in political polls at all levels and most recently in the #brexit vote. To avoid explaining why they held a position, those in favor of leaving simply didn’t answer pollsters or lied to them. Either way, the poll results failed.
We are now and will continue to see this in our own polls. Whether you like Mr. Trump or not, its clear that a LOT of people like him just enough to vote for him whether they admit it or not. So the surprise will be jaw-dropping. Stay tuned.